Call GE 14 Now or Else

Signs of the Inevitable

The current Barisan government of DS Najib Razak has a limited window of opportunity to  strike at the opposition by taking that bold step towards the next general elections (GE14) now. 

The Barisan has the opportunity to cash in on a deeply divided politically bankrupt opposition devoid of any alternative policies. And with the opposition’s future bound up in the prospect of a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) into the Forex  and other scandals, it looks likely that the opposition is staring down the long loaded barrel of a gun. They have no succession planning.

The opposition’s ally in Singapore is scandal plagued with no Lee Kuan Yew there at the helm to rein in the dissidents and troublemakers. The trouble there this time is from and within the Lee family itself.  The remaining Lees have much more to deal with domestically than to serve as amahs to the US and its errant DoJ (department of justice) seeking to vilify and damage the reputation of DS Najib Razak and his government.

How Good are the Barisan’s Chances Really?

So does DS Najib and the BN (Barisan Nasional) have a guaranteed free run to Putrajaya again this time if elections were held soon? Well the answer to that is not quite that simple anymore.

What looms large over every government throughout the world today is the very real prospect of another devastating global financial crisis. It is not if but when.

The collapse of financial markets is now long overdue, inevitable and without contingency. And when it comes it will hit with such fury and unexpectedly that the destruction in its path will not bode well for countries like Malaysia.

All of the speculative half truths peddled about government and the Malaysian economy by the opposition will crystalize into overnight realities. The truth won’t matter anymore. The people will be looking for a scapegoat. And the Barisan will be it.

It is just a matter of time before another global financial shock hits the world. The ripple effects of it will be felt as far away as Timbuktu delivering self fulfilling prophesies to opposition groups everywhere.  All of the signs and economic data point to a devastating cataclysmic event just waiting for that small flash to push us over the precipice. Could it be Brexit hat will light that spark? or Tony Blair’s sudden conversion to honest Joe confessing his sins and the part he played in the destruction of Irak?

Anwar will without doubt as he is preparing for it, re claim his anti BN credentials as an economic prophet and prophet of doomsday. What his followers will do will make 1998 pale into a school boys picnic.

New Messiahs Old Problems and Self Fulfilling Prophesies

In Malaysia the opposition and many religious groups claim to have already predicted an apocalyptic calamity like the financial market collapse of 2008.

The Evangelical Christians and extremist Muslim groups alike will find new recruits falling form heaven into their arms. They will be the new political ideologies and parties for the next generation.

Government’s ability to control the chaos from the dissatisfaction, the outrage, fall out and confusion from the next crash will be limited to declaration of a state of emergency. Losses will be measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Accumulated gains in all sectors will be wiped out in minutes. Savings including Provident Fund savings will evaporate. The prospect of effective government intervention will be zero.

Professor Joseph Groth outlined the characteristics and the behavior of not just markets but also humans in times of such crisis. History has proved his research right time and time again. Religion will always come to the fore and to the emotional rescue of the masses. It will prevail over all temporal ideologies and philosophies, common sense and logic. It’s very human. Its very dangerous and the threat  is very real.

Asset prices have only increased and grown (artificially) since 2009 because of inflated values created and maintained by a narrow band of market leaders. Reserve Banks the world over have through QE (Quantitative Easing- meaning they print new bank notes to allow banks to buy government bonds and other financial assets to stimulate the economy). QE hasn’t worked well and was no long term solution to the massive destruction of the global financial system as a result of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

Doomsday Gospels or Reality?

The world economy has in fact shrunk since 2009 with a tilt in favour of China. The first 20 years since implementation of its free market policies, China was able to ride the crest of a one sided wave with relative impunity and insularity because of the sheer size of the economic advantage it held over its competitors. It still has no floating currency, large reserves, a controlled economy and a monopoly on manufacturing. It will need a war to distract it when the crisis hits. That war will either be fought over the Spratley islands or the Korean peninsula or along the Sino Indian border (where it can only be short).

China’s economy too has a dark and depressing side to it. China has a large unstable mountain of debt which it will not be able to control when the next crash comes (very soon). It is no longer that insular from the effects of the world economy. And neither is Malaysia. Already the Johore corridor is showing signs of economic stress from an over supply of real estate. China will inevitably withdraw or renege on some of its investment commitments to Malaysia. That in turn will drag the ringgit below any floor economists have created. No amount of central bank (Bank Negara) buying will be able too contain the fall.

Act Now or Perish (forever hold your piece)

If DS Najib Razak does not act now, the swing against his government will be catastrophic. It is tragic that no one has yet put it before him that he should go to the people for another mandate for another 4 years term before he gets wiped out or the country slides into uncontrollable chaos. Both scenarios are very likely.

The self fulfilling prophesies of the opposition of ‘failed state’ ‘one party monopoly’ ‘broken economy’ ‘ Chinese mirage in investment’ will all be handed to an undeserving opposition on a silver platter and without merit.

No one in their right mind, not even the Jewish bankers of Europe and the US believe in the longevity of this bull run since 2008 is anything more than a mirage and a disaster waiting to happen. It is artificial and unsustainable. But like with all lessons of history, we never seem to learn the lessons of history.

 

Advertisements
Comments
4 Responses to “Call GE 14 Now or Else”
  1. IT.Scheiss says:

    If a long predicted global economic crash happens as you and many others such as X22 Report, Gerald Celente, AMTV, Economic Collappse, Money GPS, etc have predicted, then it could very well adversely affect Malaysia and the chances of the BN losing the next GE, especially if the crash happens before the GE.

    However, I’m not too sure about polarisation towards Evangelical Christianity and extreme forms of Islam, though given the inter-ethnic and inter-religious political divide in Malaysia instead of a class or left-right divide as exists elsewhere, either of both scenarios could be possible within the Malaysian body politic. However, whilst I can see Muslims polarising towards PAS if an economic tsunami hits before GE14, I can’t see why non-Malay, non-Muslims would polarise especially towards Evangelical Christianity in significant enough numbers, though further ethnic polarisation is likely.

    Who is the Professor Joseph Groth you referred to and what is his speciality, title of his paper, book,etc.? A Google search on “Professor Joseph Groth” yielded so many results, none of which look like the person you quoted.

    Anyway, this Bernama article was posted about three hours ago and unless it is poor reporting – i.e. the reporter wrote “50 seats” when he or she meant “50 more seats”; it does not look like Pakatan Harapan will win GE14, even with PAS splitting the vote; and if the reporter quoted Rafizi correctly,then Pakatan Harapan would win 39 fewer seats than Pakatan Rakyat did in GE13, which would be a huge setback for them.

    July 09, 2017 23:50 PM

    Pakatan Hopes To Win 50 Parliamentary Seats In GE14

    JOHOR BAHRU, July 9 (Bernama) — Pakatan Harapan (PH) has shortlisted 50 parliamentary seats which they hope to win in the 14th General Election (GE14).

    PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli said the seats include 15 in Johor such as Johor Bahru, Pasir Gudang, Tebrau, Sembrong, Tanjung Piai, Labis, Segamat, Sekijang, Pulai and Sri Gading.

    “Some of these seats were won by Barisan Nasional with a small majority of votes in GE13,” he told the media after launching the ‘Jom Bina Semula Negara’ campaign, here today.

    The two-month campaign in 22 locations nationwide will focus on issues such as the minimum wage and the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

    — BERNAMA

    http://www.bernama.com/bernama/state_news/news.php?cat=st&id=1370930
    END

    As for an imminent global economic crash, well yes it’s long overdue and the global economy has been inthe doldrums since 2007/2008, and yes, economic indicators today show similar patterns as in 2008/2008.

    However, I am rather weary over predictions of an imminent crash by the likes of X22 Report, Gerald Celente, AMTV, Economic Collappse, Money GPS, etc., which have forecasted the crash would happen in 2012, then 2013, then 2014, then 2015, then 2016 and now some say around August 2017.

    What makes you so certain that an economic crash will happen soon, especially when the DJIA has been on an uptrend since 17,888 points in November 2016 to 21,414 points on 7 July 2017?

    OK.the DJIA has been going sideways since 19th June 2017 and is at its historical high, and yes, it could likely pull back and drop significantly as it did in 2008, but such pullbacks are normal in any stock bull run, as stockholders, especially traders sell to lock in their profit – i.e. “profit taking” in trading terms.

    Of course, very much speculation-driven stock price indices are not always an accurate barometer of the health of the underlying economy (even though my remisier would disagree with me) or even the fundamental underlying strength of a particular counter

    This was evident in the case of the dot-com boom oftehlate 1990s and its bust in 2000, where many of these listed dot-coms were deep in the red financially but their stock price was sky high. Conversely, even when a company’s revenue and profit has been positive and growing over the past five years with future profitability expected, but it’s stock price falls due to profit taking pressure.

    What other financial or economic reports or indicators do you base your forecast of an imminent global economic crash on?

    Anyway, let’s see if forecasts of an economic crash around August come to pass.

    It it does, it could well spell regional or global military conflict and quite possibly civil unrest in many countries, such as in Europe, North America and Latin America; as well as intensified inter-ethnic and inter-religious polarisation and violence, which has already shown its ugly head there already.

    Like

    • grkumar says:

      Thank you for your input and for the earlier emails about the technical issues which we will attend to.

      Professor J Groth or Joseph Groth is a political scientist (if he is still around) and wrote extensively on how societies and sections of societies behave in various situations of political upheaval.

      His observations are widely quoted in political discourse.

      Getting back to your questions briefly, the polarization you speak of is not intended to be polarizations. Instead it refers to that claim that many often make when a self fulfilling prophesy or any prophesy occurs. It is the “we told you so syndrome”. And yo may recall outside Wall Street’s main exchange Evangelists claiming that they had foretold of that Armageddon as it was in the scriptures. Muslim evangelicals have been using the rise of ISIS and other catastrophic events in the UK Australia and Europe to claim the same cause effect God connection.

      Like

      • IT.Scheiss says:

        So in other words, if an economic tsunami hits before GE14, the BN stands a good chance of losing and if it does, the Pakatan will be able to say “I told you so” and it’s likely they surely will.

        Something I have noticed about Pakatan parties, their rank and file members and supporters, is that they lack a coherent ideology, clear objective of what they are fighting for and clear policies, apart from a set of single issues, cliched causes and the objective to unseat the BN.

        For example, Pakatan parties claim to be multi-ethnic and one of their stated objectives is a fairer, more ethically inclusive Malaysia, yet some of their claimed supporters forward messages and articticles which are hateful of Malays, Muslims or Islam either via e-mail or to a WhatsApp group I’m on, which would work against the claimed objectives of the party or parties they support, by helping to further widen the existing divide.

        Like I know a rank and file DAP member who comes out with a stream of anti Muslim and anti-Malay rhetoric in private, till the point I got sick of listening to him, and this is considering that the DAP claims to stand for an inclusive Malaysian Malaysia, but their rank and file members and supporters don’t really practice that in their daily lives.

        Like

      • grkumar says:

        I think you understand the lay of the land better than most. The Pakatan is so shallow that each time you put up a challenge to them to articulate their alternative to government policies they fall silent. Thats because they have none. And thats not a guess, thats the truth.

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: